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The 2022 United States Senate election in Vermont was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Vermont. It was held concurrently with U.S. Senate elections in other states, along with elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections across the country. The incumbent senator, Democrat Patrick Leahy, announced on November 15, 2021, that he would not seek re-election to a ninth term,[1] leaving the seat open for the first time since 1974, when Leahy first elected.
Primary elections were held on August 9, 2022, with Peter Welch, the incumbent U.S. Representative from the state's at-large congressional district, winning the Democratic primary, while U.S. Army veteran Gerald Malloy won the Republican primary. In heavily Democratic Vermont, the Democratic nomination is tantamount to election, and on election day, Welch defeated Malloy in a landslide and becoming the first non-incumbent Democratic Senator in the state's history. He won all but one county in the state, garnering 68.5% of the vote statewide to Malloy's 28.0%. The race was called for Welch shortly after polls closed.[2]
At 75 years old, Welch became the oldest person ever elected to a first term in the Senate, a record previously held by Frederick H. Gillett in 1924.[3] He also became only the second Democrat ever elected to the Senate from Vermont, after Leahy.[2]
Democratic primary
Following Leahy's announcement that he would retire, speculation arose as to which Democrats could run to succeed him; Newsweek cited two of the leading possible contenders for the nomination as Peter Welch, who had served as U.S. Representative for Vermont's at-large congressional district since 2006, and President pro tempore of the Vermont Senate Becca Balint.[4] Also considering a run was state representative Tanya Vyhovsky.[5] However, candidates were reluctant to enter the race due to speculation that Bernie Sanders, Vermont's popular junior senator, would endorse Welch for the open seat.[5] It was widely considered that an endorsement from Sanders would essentially lock up the race for Welch.[5] While both men were both considered to be associated with the left-wing of the Democratic Party, Welch was noted by The Intercept to be rather more moderate than Sanders was, especially when compared to Vyhovsky.[5]
Welch announced his campaign for the seat on November 22, 2021, pledging in a campaign video to support Medicare for All and the Green New Deal; he was immediately endorsed by Sanders.[6][7]
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined
- Becca Balint, President pro tempore of the Vermont Senate[12][13][14][15] (ran for and elected to U.S. House)[16]
- Sarah Copeland-Hanzas, state representative[12]
- T. J. Donovan, Vermont Attorney General[17][18][12]
- Molly Gray, Lieutenant Governor of Vermont[12][15] (ran for U.S. House)[19]
- Christine Hallquist, businesswoman and nominee for Governor of Vermont in 2018[20]
- Jill Krowinski, Speaker of the Vermont House of Representatives[12][21]
- Patrick Leahy, incumbent U.S. senator and president pro tempore[1]
- Kesha Ram Hinsdale, state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2016[15] (endorsed Welch; ran for and won re-election)[22][23]
- Tanya Vyhovsky, state representative[24][25][a] (ran for and elected to state senate)[26]
- David Zuckerman, former lieutenant governor of Vermont and Democratic and Progressive nominee for governor in 2020 (ran for and elected lieutenant governor)[27][a]
Endorsements
Isaac Evans-Frantz
Organizations
Peter Welch
U.S. Senators
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present), former U.S. Representative for Vermont's at-large congressional district (1991–2007), and candidate for President of the United States in 2016 and 2020[29]
State legislators
- Kesha Ram Hinsdale, state senator (2021–present) and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2016[30]
Organizations
- Council for a Livable World[31]
- End Citizens United[32]
- Giffords[33]
- League of Conservation Voters[34]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[35]
- Population Connection Action Fund[36]
Labor unions
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Isaac Evans-Frantz |
Niki Thran |
Peter Welch |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[38] | July 21–25, 2022 | 352 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 6% | 1% | 82% | 0% | 10% |
Results
Welch
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Peter Welch | 86,603 | 87.01% | |
| Democratic | Isaac Evans-Frantz | 7,230 | 7.26% | |
| Democratic | Niki Thran | 5,104 | 5.13% | |
| Write-in | 599 | 0.60% | ||
| Total votes | 99,536 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Myers Mermel, commercial real estate banker[42]
- Christina Nolan, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Vermont[43]
Declined
- Jim Douglas, former governor of Vermont and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1992[44]
- Phil Scott, Governor of Vermont (endorsed Nolan; running for re-election)[45]
Endorsements
Myers Mermel
Christina Nolan
U.S. Senators
- Susan Collins, U.S. Senator from Maine (1997–present)[47]
- Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader and U.S. Senator from Kentucky (1985–present)[48]
Governors
- Jim Douglas, former governor of Vermont (2003–2011)[49]
- Phil Scott, Governor of Vermont (2017–present)[50]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gerald Malloy |
Myers Mermel |
Christina Nolan |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[38] | July 21–25, 2022 | 196 (LV) | ± 7.0% | 30% | 3% | 24% | 43% |
Results
Malloy
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Nolan
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Gerald Malloy | 12,169 | 42.39% | |
| Republican | Christina Nolan | 10,825 | 37.70% | |
| Republican | Myers Mermel | 5,227 | 18.21% | |
| Write-in | 489 | 1.70% | ||
| Total votes | 28,710 | 100.0% | ||
Progressive primary
Candidates
Withdrew after winning primary
- Martha Abbott, former chair of the Vermont Progressive Party and candidate for governor in 2010, 2012, and 2014[51][52]
Declined
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive | Martha Abbott | 473 | 86.63% | |
| Write-in | 73 | 13.37% | ||
| Total votes | 546 | 100.0% | ||
Minor-parties and independents
Candidates
Declared
- Mark Coester, truck driver[53]
- Natasha Diamondstone-Kohout (Green Mountain)[52]
- Stephen Duke[52]
- Dawn Marie Ellis[52]
- Cris Ericson, perennial candidate[52]
- Kerry Patrick Raheb, former stockbroker[54][55]
Declined
- Christopher Helali (Party of Communists USA), farmer and teacher[56]
- Brock Pierce, cryptocurrency investor, former actor, and candidate for president of the United States in 2020[57][58]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[59] | Solid D | November 19, 2021 |
| Inside Elections[60] | Solid D | January 7, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[61] | Safe D | November 3, 2021 |
| Politico[62] | Solid D | August 12, 2022 |
| RCP[63] | Safe D | November 1, 2022 |
| Fox News[64] | Solid D | May 12, 2022 |
| DDHQ[65] | Solid D | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[66] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
| The Economist[67] | Safe D | September 7, 2022 |
Endorsements
Peter Welch (D)
U.S. Senators
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present), former U.S. Representative for Vermont's at-large congressional district (1991–2007), and candidate for president of the United States in 2016 and 2020[29]
Statewide officials
- Beth Pearce, Vermont State Treasurer (2011–2023)[68]
State legislators
Local officials
Newspapers
Organizations
- Brady Campaign[68]
- Council for a Livable World[31]
- End Citizens United[32]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[68]
- Giffords[33]
- Human Rights Campaign[70]
- Indivisible Project[68]
- League of Conservation Voters[34]
- Let America Vote[68]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[35]
- National Education Association[68]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[68]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[68]
- Population Connection Action Fund[36]
- Rights and Democracy Vermont[68]
- Sierra Club[71]
- Vermont College Democrats[68]
- Vermont State Employees Association[68]
Labor unions
Gerald Malloy (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[72]
Individuals
- Paul Hurley, Roman Catholic priest for the Archdiocese of Boston and former U.S. Army Chief of Chaplains[73]
- Rich Staats, retired U.S. Army major general and former commanding general of the 75th Innovation Command[73]
State legislators
- Mark Higley, state representative[74]
- Larry Labor, state representative[74]
- Art Peterson, state representative[74]
- Vicki Strong, state representative[74]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Peter Welch (D) |
Gerald Malloy (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[75] | October 21–26, 2022 | 1,039 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 63% | 32% | – | 4% |
| University of New Hampshire[76] | September 29 – October 3, 2022 | 765 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 62% | 28% | 2%[c] | 8% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[77] | September 3–7, 2022 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 43% | 2% | 5% |
Hypothetical polling
Peter Welch vs. Christina Nolan
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Peter Welch (D) |
Christina Nolan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[78] | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 62% | 27% | 1% | 10% |
Patrick Leahy vs. Phil Scott
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Patrick Leahy (D) |
Phil Scott (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VPR/Vermont PBS[79] | September 3–15, 2020 | 582 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 41% | 7% | 15% |
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Peter Welch | Gerard Malloy | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 13, 2022 | Vermont Public Radio | Mikaela Lefrak | Youtube | P | P |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Peter Welch | 196,575 | 68.47% | +7.21% | |
| Republican | Gerald Malloy | 80,468 | 28.03% | −5.00% | |
| Independent | Dawn Marie Ellis | 2,752 | 0.96% | N/A | |
| Green Mountain | Natasha Diamondstone-Kohout | 1,574 | 0.55% | N/A | |
| Independent | Kerry Patrick Raheb | 1,532 | 0.53% | N/A | |
| Independent | Mark Coester | 1,273 | 0.44% | N/A | |
| Independent | Stephen Duke | 1,209 | 0.42% | N/A | |
| Independent | Cris Ericson | 1,105 | 0.38% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 612 | 0.21% | +0.11% | ||
| Total votes | 287,100 | 100% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
See also
Notes
- ^ a b Candidate is a member of the Progressive Party, but ran with the Democratic Party's endorsement under Vermont's electoral fusion system
- ^ a b c d e Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Ericson (I) with 1%; Ellis (I) with 1%
References
- ^ a b "Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont, the longest-serving member of US Senate, says he won't run for reelection in 2022". news.yahoo.com. Associated Press. November 15, 2021. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
- ^ a b Kang, Hanna; Casado, Laura (November 8, 2022). "The Senate has its 1st new member". The Week. London. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
- ^ Fedor, Lauren (January 2, 2023). "First-time senators take their seats as Democrats maintain slim majority". Financial Times. London. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
- ^ Hutzler, Alexandra (November 15, 2021). "Who Will Run for Patrick Leahy's Seat? Vermont's Longest-Serving Senator to Retire". Newsweek. Retrieved August 16, 2022.
- ^ a b c d Grim, Ryan (November 14, 2021). "Bernie Sanders Could Snuff Out a Potential Primary Contest to Replace Patrick Leahy". The Intercept. Retrieved August 16, 2022.
- ^ Forgey, Quint (November 22, 2021). "Rep. Peter Welch launches Senate bid for Leahy's seat". Politico. Axel Springer SE. Retrieved August 16, 2022.
- ^ Bowman, Bridget (November 22, 2021). "Welch launches Vermont Senate run with Sanders' backing". Roll Call. FiscalNote. Retrieved August 16, 2022.
- ^ Forgey, Quint (November 22, 2021). "Rep. Peter Welch launches Senate bid for Leahy's seat". Politico. Archived from the original on November 22, 2021. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
- ^ "Rep. Peter Welch announces run for U.S. Senate". WCAX-TV. Burlington, Vt. November 22, 2021. Archived from the original on November 22, 2021. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
- ^ "Isaac Evans-Frantz announces bid for US Senate in Vermont". April 11, 2022. Retrieved April 12, 2022.
- ^ "Physician Niki Thran to run for Vermont Senate seat". January 14, 2022. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e Heintz, Paul (November 18, 2020). "If Sanders Joined Biden's Cabinet, Who Would Succeed Him in the Senate?". Seven Days. Archived from the original on November 25, 2020. Retrieved November 27, 2020.
- ^ O'Connor, Kevin (November 3, 2020). "Senate leader Becca Balint's new signs hint at future statewide run". VTDigger. Archived from the original on December 5, 2020. Retrieved November 27, 2020.
- ^ Sukiennik, Greg (November 23, 2020). "Balint, women leaders, Brock make history as Senate leadership shifts". Brattleboro Reformer. Archived from the original on November 29, 2020. Retrieved November 27, 2020.
- ^ a b c Goldstein, Sasha (November 1, 2021). "Will Leahy Run? As He Ponders, Three Potential Congressional Candidates Gear up". Archived from the original on November 10, 2021. Retrieved November 10, 2021.
- ^ Duffort, Lola (December 13, 2021). "Becca Balint, leader of the Vermont Senate joins race for US House". VTDigger. Retrieved December 14, 2021.
- ^ Davis, Eric (October 24, 2019). "Vermont elections may lack drama". Addison County Independent. Archived from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 25, 2020.
- ^ Xander Landen & Kit Norton (October 29, 2019). "Democrats poll Zuckerman and Donovan for governor as Holcombe presses ahead". VTDigger. Archived from the original on October 29, 2020. Retrieved October 25, 2020.
- ^ "Lt. Gov. Molly Gray announces run for Vermont's sole US House seat". myNBC5.com. December 6, 2021. Archived from the original on December 6, 2021. Retrieved December 6, 2021.
- ^ Coleman, J. Miles (January 28, 2021). "2022 Senate Races: Initial Ratings – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Retrieved February 16, 2021.
- ^ Johnson, Mark (June 16, 2021). "Column | Lt. Gov. Molly Gray Says She's Too Focused on Her Current Role to Think About Running for Congress". sevendaysvt.com.
- ^ Cutler, Calvin (May 27, 2022). "Kesha Ram Hinsdale drops out of US House race, endorses Becca Balint". WCAX. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
- ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (January 13, 2022). "Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale launches campaign for US House". VTDigger. Vermont Journalism Trust. Retrieved January 15, 2022.
- ^ a b Grim, Ryan (November 14, 2021). "Bernie Sanders could snuff out a potential primary challenge to replace Patrick Leahy". Archived from the original on November 15, 2021. Retrieved November 15, 2021.
- ^ Sukiennik, Greg (November 15, 2021). "Leaders, potential candidates hail U.S. Sen. Patrick Leahy as he announces 2022 retirement". Bennington Banner. Archived from the original on November 18, 2021. Retrieved November 18, 2021.
- ^ a b Higdon, Bridget (May 4, 2022). "Rep. Tanya Vyhovsky announces candidacy for new Chittenden-Central State Senate District". The Essex Reporter.
- ^ Lindholm, Jane [@JaneLindholm] (November 15, 2021). "David Zuckerman coming out of the gate fast with his declaration, on @vermontedition, that he will NOT be running for the open Senate seat, and he advises patience for others who are considering jumping in. #vtpoli (Guess I won't make my announcement quite yet, then.)" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 15, 2021. Retrieved November 16, 2021 – via Twitter.
- ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (June 7, 2022). "Isaac Evans-Frantz doesn't want the US Senate race to be a 'coronation'". VT Digger. Retrieved August 5, 2022.
- ^ a b Knutson, Jacob (November 22, 2021). "Vermont Rep. Peter Welch to seek Leahy's Senate seat". Axios. Archived from the original on November 22, 2021. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
- ^ "Congressman Peter Welch to run for U.S. Senate after Sen. Leahy opts to not seek re-election". Vermont Public Radio. November 22, 2021. Archived from the original on November 22, 2021. Retrieved November 25, 2021.
- ^ a b "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World.
- ^ a b "Candidates". endcitizensunited.org. End Citizens United. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
- ^ a b "Giffords Endorses Congressman Peter Welch for the US Senate". www.giffords.org. Giffords. April 29, 2022.
- ^ a b "LCV ACTION FUND ANNOUNCES FIRST ROUND OF NON-INCUMBENT SENATE ENDORSEMENTS". www.lcv.org. February 2, 2022. Retrieved February 2, 2022.
- ^ a b "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Rep. Peter Welch for Election to the U.S. Senate". www.prochoiceamerica.org. February 15, 2022.
- ^ a b "2022 House & Senate Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Archived from the original on July 2, 2022. Retrieved April 21, 2022.
- ^ a b "2022 CWA Endorsed Candidates - Vermont". Communications Workers of America. March 24, 2022. Retrieved April 26, 2022.
- ^ a b University of New Hampshire
- ^ a b c "2022 August Primary Federal and Statewide Office Canvass Report" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State.
- ^ "Republican candidates for U.S. Senate and House to hold forum in Milton May 14". Milton Independent. May 5, 2022. Retrieved May 11, 2022.
- ^ "FEC Form 2". Federal Election Committee. March 18, 2022. Retrieved May 11, 2022.
- ^ "Myers Mermel announces his candidacy for Us Senate in Vermont". Cision PR Newswire. May 27, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
- ^ Beals, Monique (February 22, 2022). "Former US attorney launches Senate bid in Vermont". thehill.com. The Hill. Retrieved February 22, 2022.
- ^ Reed, Nathaniel [@ReedReports] (November 15, 2021). "JUST IN: Former Longtime Vermont Governor Jim Douglas (R-VT, 2003-2011) tells me (@Newsy) he will NOT run for Senate in 2022. Says he assumes Rep. @PeterWelch (D-VT) "would be the favorite, if he decides to run"" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 15, 2021. Retrieved November 16, 2021 – via Twitter.
- ^ Scanlon, Kate (November 15, 2021). "GOP Vermont governor says he won't run for Senate seat Leahy's giving up". Washington Examiner. Archived from the original on November 19, 2021. Retrieved November 20, 2021.
- ^ a b "Senate candidate Mermel endorsed by Mike Huckabee". Vermont Daily Chronicle. June 10, 2023. Retrieved October 15, 2023.
- ^ Mearhoff, Sarah; Skillman, Kori (August 9, 2022). "Peter Welch to face Gerald Malloy in Vermont's US Senate race". VT Digger. Retrieved August 17, 2022.
- ^ "Mitch McConnell to headline Christina Nolan campaign fundraiser". Vermont Digger. May 2, 2022. Retrieved May 4, 2022.
- ^ "Jim Douglas to chair Nolan for Senate campaign". Vermont Daily Chronicle. May 19, 2022. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
- ^ Cooney, Melissa (February 22, 2022). "Nolan to run for US Senate". wcax.com. Retrieved February 28, 2022.
- ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 30, 2022). "In Vermont election season with historic turnover, some statewide races will see little competition". Valley News. VTDigger. Archived from the original on May 31, 2022. Retrieved June 4, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e "General Election Candidates". Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
- ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1546208". Archived from the original on November 15, 2021. Retrieved November 15, 2021.
- ^ Jin, Danny (January 24, 2022). "Would-be Adams cannabis merchant, a vaccine critic, seeks Senate seat in Vermont". The Berkshire Eagle. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
- ^ "Statement of Candidacy" (PDF). Federal Election Committee. November 24, 2021. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
- ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1574431". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
- ^ Duffort, Lola (March 3, 2022). "A former child star turned crypto capitalist is bankrolling his own Senate run in Vermont". VTDigger. Valley News. Retrieved April 30, 2022.
- ^ "FEC Form 2 Filing FEC-1547935". Federal Election Committee. November 11, 2021. Retrieved July 1, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
- ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
- ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
- ^ "Vermont Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
- ^ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast". The Economist. September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "Endorsements - Welch for Vermont". welchforvermont. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
- ^ "Editorial: Endorsements". November 3, 2022.
- ^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses U.S. Rep. Peter Welch of Vermont for U.S. Senate". Human Rights Campaign. August 11, 2022. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
- ^ "Congressional Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org.
- ^ "Republican US Senate candidate Gerald Malloy endorsed by Donald Trump". VT Digger. November 3, 2022.
- ^ a b "Military leaders endorse Gerald Malloy for U.S. Senate". VT Digger. June 29, 2022. Retrieved September 10, 2022.
- ^ a b c d "Republican state legislators unite behind Gerald Malloy for U.S. Senate". VT Digger. August 2, 2022. Retrieved September 10, 2022.
- ^ Data for Progress (D)
- ^ University of New Hampshire
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ University of New Hampshire
- ^ VPR/Vermont PBS
- ^ "Election Results". Vermont Secretary of State.
External links
Campaign sites
